Would we be better off were we to swear off apocalyptic thinking? I have spent much of my research career thinking about apocalyptic possibilities . Each possibility has passed out of consideration , although the arguments have merit, and even the evidence is persuasive. The big question is when to constrain behavior, and if there is ever a time when it is "too late" to act . Also, we are rather weak at predicting technological developments compared to sketching apocalypses, so the apocalypse tends to have a better argument than a more wait-and-see policy, or perhaps a deliberate research effort to develop those technologies (which may be a matter of societal arrangements rather than a material discovery). More generally, t he prospect of apocalypse is used to justify policies and behavior that would otherwise seem not so prudent. The possibility of doom, if taken as a matter of decision analysis , is fraught with uncer...
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